金正日很可能中风了 Kim Jong Il may have suffered stroke

U.S.: Kim Jong Il may have suffered stroke
Speculation over N. Korea leader's health grows after he misses parade
金正日很可能中风了。
金正日缺席为纪念朝鲜建国60周年而举行的阅兵仪式，让密切注视他的美国产生了上述猜想。

080909-Korea-vmed-550a_widec.jpg

North Korea's No. 2 leader Kim Yong Nam, 2nd right at bottom, attended an event Monday at a stadium in Pyongyang, North Korea, on the eve of the communist state's 60th anniversary.
朝鲜第二号领导人金永男，下面右数第二个，参加了周一(国庆前一天)在平壤体育馆举行的纪念朝鲜建国60周年的纪念活动

SEOUL, South Korea - A U.S. intelligence official said North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, 66, may have suffered a stroke, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.

A U.S. intelligence official said there is reason to believe Kim Jong Il is sick after he failed to show up at a North Korean national celebration on Tuesday. That official and another U.S. source spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence gathering.

Earlier, South Korea's largest daily, the Chosun Ilbo, said Kim collapsed last month, citing a South Korean diplomatic source in Beijing.


"It does appear that Kim Jong-Il has suffered a health setback, potentially a stroke," an official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

She said there have been no signs of a change in governing power and that assessing whether Kim was still capable of governing would "call for a lot of speculation."

Earlier, South Korea's largest daily, the Chosun Ilbo, said Kim collapsed last month, citing a South Korean diplomatic source in Beijing.

Kim has not been seen in public for a month and U.S. officials were closely watching the day's military parade for signs to the leader's health. As leader, Kim attended parades for the 50th and 55th anniversary of the state founded by his father, Kim Il-sung.  

North Koreans call Kim the "Dear Leader" and he holds absolute power in the Stalinist regime.

Triumphal military parade
North Korea celebrated its 60th birthday with a triumphal military parade on Tuesday just as the hermit state appears to be backing away from a disarmament deal.

South Korea's military said the North had been massing weapons for days to show them off in its capital in a spectacle that followed a report Kim may be seriously ill.

Kim failed to show up for the anniversary parade that featured displays of armaments, legions of goose-stepping soldiers and tens of thousands of fawning North Koreans shouting praises to him in unison, according to a North Korea state TV broadcast monitored in Seoul.

Kim's health is one of the most closely guarded secrets in the world's first communist dynasty, but Kim himself, at a summit with South Korea's president in October 2007, dismissed persistent media speculation he was ill.

"I make a little move and that gets huge coverage," Kim said in rare comments. "It seems like they're fiction writers and not journalists."

Analysts have cautioned not to read too much into the public appearances of Kim, who can drop out of sight for months and then show up in field guidance tours to military bases, farms and factories for visits described by the North's propaganda machine as showing his tireless devotion to the communist state.

"He may also not wanted to appear because international aid is drying up and the country might have had trouble giving out presents to its people to mark the anniversary," said Shunji Hiraiwa, a professor at the University of Shizuoka in Japan.

Rattling sabers
Military experts keep a close eye on these set-piece parades to see if the secretive North unveils any new weapons systems.

"The North probably wants to boost the image of its military might in order to cement unity within the country and secure a better position in the denuclearization negotiations," the Seoul daily JoongAng Ilbo cited a South Korean government official who is familiar with the North as saying.

North Korea began taking apart its Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear plant last November as called for in a disarmament-for-aid deal it struck with five regional powers.

The North, which tested a nuclear device about two years ago, had completed most of the required disablement steps and experts said it would take a year or more for it to restart the plant.

It stopped disabling Yongbyon in August, angered by Washington's failure to drop it from a U.S. terrorism blacklist. The United States said North Korea must first agree on a system to verify Pyongyang's disclosures about its nuclear programs.

"(North Korea) has gotten about all she can get from President Bush. It's time to try to rattle the next administration a little bit and see if she can't get a little more," Richard Armitage, a former senior State Department official in the Bush administration, said at a seminar in Seoul.

Armitage said North Korea might conduct a missile test in order to ratchet up pressure.

Under Kim, the North's already anemic economy has taken a turn for the worse, while the Pyongyang leadership has used the threat of its military arsenal to squeeze concessions out of regional powers.

[ 本帖最后由 alibaba 于 2008-9-9 22:36 编辑 ]